Happy Foggy Thanksgiving!!

Hey, we actually saw some sun yesterday afternoon and stars last night!! A quick check of traffic cameras shows the sun shining brightly west of the Blue Ridge mountains, but fog shows up even in the cams around Raleigh NC.
According to the Sterling NWS forecast we should see some sun after this thick stuff burns off, but the clouds are due to roll back in this afternoon. Then tonight a cold front is supposed to plow through here producing some showers and gusty west winds for tomorrow, but not ushering in really cold temperatures. Saturday thru Monday we should actually see some sun!!

Let there be...a trough!

This is the depiction of the wind field over the northeastern U.S. at the 500 mb level (~18,000 ft) for 7:00 a.m. this coming Friday morning. It shows a deep "trough" or dip in the west-to-east winds, meaning a couple of things to us:
(1) Strong upper level winds flowing over us from the northwest out of Canada and leading to much cooler air above us, providing instability and - yes - precipitation on Friday.
(2) Sets the stage for a strong low pressure system to form over the eastern U.S., which is forecast to occur by Monday night accompanied by yet more precipitation.

The models are predicting another such trough over us by next Tuesday morning, so more of the same can be expected next week.

Seems as if we can't shake the pattern of two days of sunshine followed by five days of overcast and wetness.

Model uncertainty means sun for Sunday

You know, forecaster pontification about the lack of forecast model accuracy doesn't tend to engender a lot of public confidence. The latest forecast discussion from NWS Sterling states that "WE/VE ENTERED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN SPLIT FLOW WRECKS HAVOC ON MDL SOLNS. IT APPEARS WE/RE ENTERING SUCH A PD." Translated, this means that the forecast models used to predict our upcoming weather are puking out questionable solutions that don't agree with the solutions from previous runs. Thanksgiving week will - apparently - start with sun tomorrow (vice the Sunday rain that was predicted a day or so ago), followed by a week-long succession of cloudy and/or rainy days. Next weekend looks to be significantly cooler than the mild temperatures of late, but that stands to reason since we're approaching the end of November. Other than that you might want to stay tuned in case the forecast model solutions continue to jump all over the place. Of course, if you want some weather geek entertainment try listening to as many local forecasts as you can from all available sources (TV, radio, internet, etc) and seeing how much they differ this week.

And we have M-O-R-E cold air damming!

Yuck! What a rotten weather pattern. There seems to be a continuous succession of strong High pressure systems taking up a semi-permanent position over New England, which means we suffer under an easterly wind bringing in cool low level moisture from the Atlantic. We will break into some sunshine tomorrow and Saturday, then it's back under the clouds come Sunday as another low pressure system spins up off Cape Hatteras. Here's to the coming of spring!

4 inches of rain this past week

It's certainly NOT official, but our backyard rain gauge recorded 4" of rain for this past week when I emptied it this afternoon. (It was too "squishy" to trudge out there yesterday!) Considering that our average rainfall for the entire month of November is 3.3" the recent nor'easter was quite a rain event. Meanwhile, I'll take today's weather anytime!

Sunny Saturday, just not in Fredericksburg

Yes, this was taken today. And yes, this was taken near the Blue Ridge where the sun was out in all its glory...at least that's what I think that bright yellow orb in the sky was. With almost no wind and amid bright sunshine today felt like a mid-October day near the mountains. Unfortunately I re-encountered the annoying cloud-deck-that-won't-depart by the time I got back to Lignum (east of Culpeper) on Route 3. The good news is that we should see an abundance of sunshine the next few days.

Thank you Veterans! Sorry today's weather is so yucky!

We owe a lot to our veterans, so it's too bad their day has to be a soggy cool mess. All of this is due to a combination of the remnants of Ida and a "normal" system that passed through here last night. The combo is creating a coastal storm off the Carolinas that some are mentioning as a candidate for the worst such storm in 25 years. The worst part about the whole shebang is that it isn't forecast to move anywhere anytime soon, so the gray drippy skies will hang around until at least mid-day Saturday. Enjoy as best you can!